The Return of Nuclear Power in Japan’s Energy Transition
Dr. Anudeep Gujjeti
The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident of March 2011 is a critical event in Japan's energy policy history that transformed the national conversation around nuclear energy. The cataclysmic earthquake and tsunami precipitated reactor meltdowns, extensive evacuations, and pervasive environmental contamination. This disaster significantly undermined public confidence in nuclear safety and compelled the government to revaluate its dependence on nuclear energy.
Prior to the catastrophe, nuclear energy accounted for over 30% of Japan’s electricity generation, with intentions to elevate this proportion to 50% by 2030. The incidents at Fukushima triggered a significant transformation in popular sentiment and governmental action. Surveys performed subsequently indicated that negative perceptions of nuclear power generation, which were earlier around 20-30%, escalated to 70%. In light of the unprecedented decline in public confidence in nuclear energy after the incident, officials halted operations at 46 of the nation's 50 active generating reactors. Nuclear energy, a strategic priority since the 1960’s and responsible for nearly one-third of Japan's electricity, was abruptly discontinued. In 2019, nuclear energy accounted for merely 7.5% of Japan's electrical generation. Only nine nuclear power reactors have recommenced operation.
In recent years, the worldwide necessity to address climate change has prompted Japan to re-evaluate its energy strategy. The government has pledged to attain carbon neutrality by 2050, requiring a significant decrease in greenhouse gas emissions. Considering that nuclear power is a low-carbon energy source, its significance in Japan’s energy portfolio has resurfaced in policy discussions. Attaining the worldwide objective of net-zero by 2050 necessitates establishing an economy-wide absolute reduction target including all greenhouse gases and peaking global greenhouse gas emissions by 2025. Japan seeks to diminish its greenhouse gas emissions by 46% by 2030 and will persist in its rigorous endeavours to achieve the ambitious target of a 50% reduction. Japan has successfully attained a decrease of around 20%, and this progress and was onto follow schedule. The G7 Hiroshima Summit confirmed that all nations should strive for the shared objective of net-zero, utilising diverse approaches that align with economic growth and energy security.
Conversely, renewable energy in Japan has not garnered the requisite backing and attention. The present objective is for renewable energy to constitute 36-38% of the electricity mix by the conclusion of this decade, with a newly established aim of 40-50% by 2040. The lower limit of this range suggests a potential stagnation in renewable energy growth post-2030. The objective for wind energy, set at 4-8% by 2040, is unexpectedly modest considering Japan's considerable offshore wind potential, as its maritime territory ranks as the sixth largest globally. Numerous studies indicate that the wind power aim may be augmented by a minimum of 25%, suggesting that the revised objective functions more as a limitation than a motivation.
The global energy future is precarious due to the persistent instability in the Middle East and never ending conflict in Ukraine coupled with the anticipated rise in Japan's “liquefied natural gas imports” from the United States as President Donald Trump utilises this resource as an economic instrument to advance his goal of "Make America Great Again". Public perception of nuclear energy in Japan has undergone a nuanced transformation since the Fukushima disaster. While initial reactions were overwhelmingly negative, recent surveys indicate a moderate increase in positive opinions regarding the inevitability of nuclear power use. A survey conducted by Asahi Shimbun in February 2023 revealed that 51% of respondents in Japan supported the resumption of nuclear plant operations, while 42% were opposed. The elevated expenses linked to fossil fuel imports have exacerbated trade deficits. Revitalising nuclear energy can alleviate these economic issues by decreasing reliance on imports. Investing in advanced nuclear reactors can establish Japan as a leader in nuclear technology, potentially yielding economic and technological advantages. However, this shift is tempered by enduring safety concerns and scepticism about the government's ability to manage nuclear energy responsibly.
Multiple issues highlight the significance of reintroducing nuclear energy into Japan's energy portfolio. Japan's scarce domestic fossil fuel supplies render it significantly dependent on energy imports. Nuclear power provides a method to improve energy security by delivering a steady and domestically regulated energy source. Meeting the ambitious objectives of a 46% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 necessitates the utilisation of all accessible low-carbon energy sources, including nuclear energy.
The Fukushima tragedy unequivocally transformed Japan’s course on nuclear energy, prompting a prudent and critical re-evaluation of its significance. The urgent issues of climate change, energy security, and economic stability require a balanced and realistic strategy. Reintegrating nuclear energy in conjunction with a substantial growth of renewable sources seems to be a strategic necessity for Japan as it endeavours to fulfil its environmental obligations and secure a sustainable energy future especially when Japan mandated itself to meet its renewable energy targets.
Dr. Anudeep Gujjeti is Assistant Professor at the Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies, REVA University, Bengaluru.
