Syrian Military and Assad’s Downfall
Sanjaymathan S
In 2011, the Arab Spring revolutions sparked the long and devastating Syrian civil war. Initially it was a nonviolent protests calling for democratic reforms and an end to the dictatorial government of President Bashar al-Assad, whose family has controlled the country since 1970. However, the state's violent crackdowns in reaction sparked widespread unrest that ultimately escalated into a full-fledged civil war. The world has been astonished by the sudden fall of President Bashar al-Assad's rule in Syria. In just 11 days, Syrian rebels under the leadership of Abu Mohammed Al-Julani and the organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) achieved what 13 years of civil conflict had failed to. In the early hours of 7 December 2024, the rebels captured Damascus with little resistance, ending the rule of the decades-old Assad dynasty and forcing the once-feared Syrian President into exile in Russia.
Syria's alliances and diplomatic ties have changed by Bashar al-Assad's overthrow, especially with important regional and international players. Key allies like Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, who have supported the regime, would lose influence. Russia’s strategic presence, particularly its naval base in Tartus, would be at risk, potentially diminishing its power in the Middle East. Similarly, Iran views the potential fall of Assad as a significant strategic setback, as Syria is crucial for its deterrence strategy and the 'Axis of Resistance' against Israel and the U.S. However, it also sees unexplored opportunities to recalibrate its influence in the region, potentially forming alliances with other groups to maintain its presence.
While analysing the abrupt fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad there arises a question on why did Assad's army, especially its loyalist units, desert him so thoroughly and fail to protect Damascus.
A number of issues undermined the Syrian army's unity and preparedness, leading to its abandonment of Assad. There are a few major factors such as; tens of thousands of commanders and troops were transferred to reserves, which reduced the army's manpower. The rank and file, particularly the Alawites, who control the army, were alienated by the sharp drops in living standards for both active and reservist members. Inadequate food supply and widespread pay theft further undermined troops' morale. Soldiers knew that vital military assistance from Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah which was essential to the previous regime's survival would not be provided this time caused low morale amongst the forces.
The Assad belong to Syria's minority Alawite sect. The regime's framing of the situation as an existential threat to the Alawite community and other minorities as the protests intensified served to strengthen its base of support while also escalating sectarian tensions. Under Assad's leadership, many Sunni Arabs, who comprise the majority of the population, felt excluded. Although the Alawites and other minority provided support to the regime, this sectarian allegiance also made Assad's government appear to represent a certain sect rather than the Syrian people in general. This caused significant rifts and alienated a sizable portion of the populace.
Lack of Foreign support is also a reason; Assad came under increasing international censure at the start of the rebellion. His violent repression was increasingly criticized by neighbouring nations such as the growing diplomatic isolation resulted from the regime's atrocities being exposed by the UN and human rights organizations. The major financial and military backers of the Assad regime were the focus of international pressure and sanctions against Syria, particularly from the US and the EU. The dictatorship suffered diplomatically and economically as a result of these sanctions.
In the early years of the civil war, Assad's forces found it difficult to keep up with the expanding resistance, which included jihadist factions, civilian volunteers, and defected military officers. As opposition factions seized territory in strategic locations, Assad's military was overextended. In order to combat the insurgents, his soldiers had to mostly rely on artillery, air power, and militias like the Shabiha. Many of the troops in Assad's army joined the opposition forces or refused to carry out orders to shoot unarmed civilians. This made Assad's forces less effective in the early stages of the war.
Even though Bashar al-Assad's government eventually survived the early stages of the rebellion and civil war, there were many times when the regime's continued existence appeared doubtful. The initial miscalculation of the revolt, territorial losses, economic collapse, growing international isolation, and dependence on outside assistance were among Assad's shortcomings. While these factors were key to the Syrian army's collapse, they don’t fully explain why its senior commanders abandoned efforts to reorganize and defend militarily viable frontlines, instead adopting complete passivity.
Sanjaymathan S is Research Intern at the Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies, REVA University, Bengaluru.
