Rising Security Concerns in the Northern Indian Ocean from the Maritime Security Belt Drills by China, Russia, and Iran

Dr. Devender Kumar

China, Russia, and Iran have recently conducted joint exercises under the Maritime Security Belt (MSB) 2025 to project a “strategic coalition”, an anti-American axis, and an alignment in the Northern Indian Ocean. The US has decided to send three new aircraft carriers to West Asia to deter the effects of this exercise and project American power to secure American interest and partners in the region as escalations have grown in the Gulf of Aden, Gulf Oman, Bab el-Mandeb, Persian Gulf and the Red Sea.

The US and its allies have extended their military role in West Asia, visible in US strikes on Houthis, Israel’s resumption of strikes on Gaza, and a rise in hard power projection in the maritime domain. In the recent past, West Asia has become “a concerning hot spot,” especially in the maritime domain, which also has ramifications for Europe's security.

The contemporary global politics shows the presence of Cold War 2.0 strategic rivalry as escalations grow between competing powers such as Russia, China, Iran, and the US. The military exercises and security pacts i.e. “Comprehensive Security Agreement” between the anti-American axis countries, showcases that there is an ideological and military tussle between the two as commitment gets strengthened among these countries to counter the US; visible in the West Asan region, which has always been a theatre of Cold War rivalry.

The power projection by these countries in different theatres has intensified the military confrontation on commercial routes, and highlights the preparedness to use force to secure interests in the uncertain, conflict-prone West Asian region

Such hard power projections are likely to have four major implications on the security architecture of Europe, India, and West Asia.

First, Europe needs to send a strong message to China on its choice to help Russia, as the alignment between Russia and China threatens the security of Europe and their transatlantic partners. China is selling strategic components and “dual use-goods” to Russia, which helps it upgrade its military hardware and develop its defense industry. Hence, Europe must give a strong warning to China for a strategic choice to help Russia, which is a major security threat to Europe after the Ukraine War, hence Europe should warn Beijing of the consequences from Europe for closeness Russia.

Second, the drills raise security concerns for regional powers like India in the Northern Indian Ocean and as military competition, tensions and regional alliance gets reshaped in the West Asian maritime domain. India needs to revamp its policy in the Northern Indian Ocean as trilateral exercises increases in the region. New Delhi conducts the Indra Naval Exercises with Russia and Malabar Naval Exercises with the US but the emerging naval exercises such as MSB pose a security and diplomatic challenge to India as China enhances its influence in the region and exploits the strategic space. It has already tried to mediate between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Therefore, India need to adjust its policies mainly by aligning with the US to counter the perceived dangers from a trilateral alliance, as China holds good control of Gwadar port in Pakistan and violates Indian sovereignty via the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Third, the trilateral exercise strengthens the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the Northern Indian Ocean Region as China asserts its posturing, interest, and alliance. It seeks to get access to markets in the gulf and enhancing trade links with the region which is the main corridor for energy (oil and gas). The rising control of Iran and China on the Strait of Hormuz via MSB exercises reinforces Beijing and Tehran's control on the regional energy routes hence both Iran and China are to play a decisive role in the energy market.

Fourth, the rising regional military presence raises questions on the regional security arrangement such as the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) and Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS)—as these organizations seek to “ensure prosperity and security in the region”, and “address trans boundary challenges”, to “strengthen regional cooperation”, and “enhance regional security” to develop common understanding on “threats and risk” in the Indian ocean region. Both these initiatives include partners such as the UAE, Iran, Oman, and the UAE; meanwhile, Russia and China are observers in ICNS. Hence, India’s multipolarity approach is visible in partnership with all, but should India be a mere spectator and observer of these rising security concerns in the regional waters as China enhances its influence in the area mainly against the US but with ramifications for the entire region. The Northern Indian Ocean region serves as the major shipping channel for significant international financial activity related to energy, supply of goods, merchant ships, and trade; hence, India needs to closely monitor these developments.

Any major disruption in the Northern Indian Ocean region would fluctuate the oil and gas prices and affect the global trade pattern; therefore, India must counter the rising Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean region as MSB drills by China, Russia, and Iran increase tensions and escalate a counter reaction from US that poses severe security threat to major energy routes and shipping channels.

Dr. Devender Kumar is Assistant Professor at the Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies (CEGIS), REVA University.