Rising Insurgency in Sistan-Baluchistan Region and its Geopolitical Ramifications
Dr. Zheer Ahmed
The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has intensified its operations in Iran’s southeastern province of Sistan and Baluchistan, targeting critical infrastructure and security forces. A recent attack on Chabahar Port saw militants engage in a prolonged gun-battle with Iranian security forces, employing heavy weaponry, including rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs). This incident has heightened concerns over the stability of this strategically vital region, which plays a crucial role in international trade and connectivity projects such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and India’s investments in the Chabahar Port. Iranian security forces launched a raid on a suspected militant hideout in Chabahar, aiming to neutralize BLA insurgents fighting for an independent Baluchistan.
This attack followed a series of violent incidents in Chabahar. On February 22, a bombing targeted the coordination headquarters of Eastern Chabahar villages, followed by an armed assault on the Housing Foundation building, injuring an employee. Jaish al-Adl, another militant organization linked to Baloch separatist movements, claimed responsibility for these attacks, stating they were in retaliation against the Iranian government’s policies, which allegedly marginalize the Baloch community.
Chabahar Port is a crucial economic and geopolitical asset for Iran. Situated along the Gulf of Oman, it provides an alternative trade route bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, which is closely monitored by Western naval forces. The port is also central to India’s strategy for establishing trade routes into Afghanistan and Central Asia, reducing reliance on Pakistan’s Karachi and Gwadar ports. India has heavily invested in Chabahar, enhancing its infrastructure to counterbalance China’s growing influence through the Gwadar Port in Pakistan. The recent attack directly threatens these investments, raising security concerns among regional stakeholders regarding the port and its surrounding infrastructure.
The escalation of BLA’s activities has significant regional and global implications. The ongoing insurgency exacerbates tensions between Iran and Pakistan, as the BLA and Jaish al-Adl operate across the Iran-Pakistan border. Tehran has accused Islamabad of harboring Baloch insurgents, while Pakistan alleges that Iran has failed to control cross-border militant activities. This latest attack is likely to strain diplomatic relations further, potentially prompting Iran to adopt more aggressive border security measures.
India’s substantial investment in Chabahar aims to establish a stable trade corridor into Central Asia. However, continued instability in the region threatens these investments, weakening India’s strategic positioning against China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). If attacks on Chabahar persist, India may need to reconsider its involvement or enhance security cooperation with Iran to protect its economic interests.
China’s Gwadar Port, located near Chabahar, is a key component of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). While China officially maintains neutrality regarding Baloch separatism, persistent insurgent activity could destabilize both Gwadar and Chabahar, affecting Beijing’s long-term regional ambitions. If the BLA expands its operations, China might pressure Pakistan to take stronger action against Baloch militant groups, further complicating the security landscape.
The broader geopolitical ramifications extend to Iran’s conflict with the United States (US). The US has long designated Jaish al-Adl and similar groups as terrorist organizations, yet Washington’s economic sanctions on Iran have weakened its ability to maintain security in regions like Sistan and Baluchistan. If militant attacks on Chabahar persist, Iran might interpret them as part of a larger destabilization strategy supported by foreign adversaries, potentially prompting an intensified military response that could escalate tensions with the US and its allies.
Iran’s response to the attack may likely involve heightened military operations against Baloch insurgents. The use of drones, surveillance, and advanced weaponry underscores Tehran’s prioritization of counter Baloch separatist movement. However, a solely military approach may not suffice. Addressing the grievances of the Baloch population, including economic marginalization and political underrepresentation, will be crucial in preventing further radicalization. Iran may seek enhanced cooperation with Pakistan and India to secure Chabahar. Joint security initiatives, intelligence sharing, and cross-border operations could become necessary to contain the growing threat posed by the BLA and other militant organizations.
The BLA’s attack on Chabahar Port marks a significant development with extensive geopolitical consequences. It underscores the fragile security situation in southeastern Iran and raises concerns for regional players, including India, Pakistan, and China. As tensions rise, the future of Chabahar as a strategic trade hub remains uncertain. If Iran fails to stabilize the region, ongoing militant activities could undermine its economic ambitions and disrupt broader geopolitical dynamics across South and Central Asia.
Dr. Zheer Ahmed, Assistant Professor at Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies, REVA University, Bengaluru
