Trump 2.0, Ukraine -Russia and the Possibility of Third World War
Dr. Devender Kumar
Global geopolitics has taken a sharp turn in the backdrop of Donald Trump's victory in the recent American elections-- he is to assume office in January 2025. The son of the president-elect has alleged that the incumbent US president (Joe Biden) wants to start a “Third World War” before his father (Donald Trump) assumes office.
The incumbent American president (Joe Biden) seems to have loosened the leash in the ongoing Ukraine-Russia War, as both sides are now using heavy weapons against each other. President Zelensky (Ukraine) has sent “Army Tactical Missile Systems” (ATACMS) long range missile to Russia which it received from the US, and Russia responded by launching “intermediate-range ballistic missile” (ICBM) and “hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile” (IRBM) against Ukraine, which has made it the first country in the world to use both against a country.
The ironic part is that these missiles can carry nuclear weapons and the possibility of a nuclear war is created by the outgoing American president (Biden). The US is supplying weapons to Ukraine before the new president (Trump) takes over, which were deliberately kept on hold for long. Biden also wants to provide $9 billion in security assistance to Ukraine for the war to get going as the newly elected president Donald Trump has vowed in the elections to end the Ukraine -Russia war in “one day.”
Despite Western support to Ukraine, this war has managed to reach the 1000th day and has raised fears of nuclear war.
There is a higher probability for this war to become global due to the following reasons.
Frist, it is the first time that a country has used ICBM and IRBM against a sovereign country. Russia has already given signals for nuclear usage and North Korea directly threatens the US with nuclear weapons and is increasing its arsenal with help from Russia.
Second, Russia has recently revised its nuclear doctrine with a new decree that permits Russia to attack a non-nuclear state that optimizes aggression against Russia with the help of a nuclear state. With this Putin has directly threatened Ukraine as well as its partners NATO including US and UK.
Third, the Ukraine-Russia war is expanding as allies have joined and are now being protected by the allies. North Korea has sent nearly 10,000 soldiers to Russia to fight against Ukraine and South Korea is willing to supply weapons to Ukraine. The US, UK, Germany, EU, NATO, and South Korea support Ukraine. While China, Iran, Belarus, and North Korea are supporting Russia.
Fourth, the Ukraine-Russia war has potential to spread in regions. For instance, Korean Peninsula is divided on this war and both North Korea and South Korea have chosen their sides. In East Asia, Japan is supporting Ukraine, along with the G7 and the US, and has imposed “economic sanctions” on Russia. But China is backing Russia and is part of the anti-American axis along with Russia. China has supplied weapons to Russia and nearly 60% of weapons parts found on the battlefield are from China. President Zelenskyy during the “Shangri-La Security Dialogue 2024” admitted China is “blocking” peace and “being used as a tool by Russia” to undermine the initiative to end the war.
Fifth, it is no longer a war between Ukraine and Russia but between the anti-American Axis comprising Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea on one side and the US and its allies on the other. Russia has received help from axis which unites against the hegemonic control of the US. Iran is the major supplier to Russia for drones and has launched over 8000 Shahed Drones against Ukraine. North Korean soldiers are entering Ukraine and China is providing tech support to Russia. The US and the UK are backing Ukraine.
Ukraine and Russia are now sending payloads at each other, but will there be a collective response from either side or will it be just like Israel-Iran with no conventional war but rhetorics despite the Iranian claim that it can make a nuclear bomb in one day. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian state has alleged that a “Third World War has begun,” and any major military spark in contemporary global politics can take the world to a possible nuclear war and give rise to a Third World War.
Such realities have assured that there is no big war as of now, but surely a Cold War-like situation has emerged in global geopolitics as countries are choosing sides and global players (the US and Russia) are backing their allies in different regions. Some even claim that Cold War 2.0 has made the beginning.
Dr. Devender Kumar is Assistant Professor at the Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies, REVA University, Bengaluru.
