The Curious Case of Shigeru Ishiba
Dr. Anudeep Gujjeti
Japan has a unique political culture where securing public trust matters greatly, even for a serving Prime Minister, not just to get re-elected but also for governments to continue functioning effectively. This has led to a “revolving door” polity in Japan, where Prime Ministers have rarely lasted for more than three years. Until Shinzo Abe took office in 2013, the average tenure of a Japanese Prime Minister was just 382 days.
Following Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone’s departure from office in 1987, Japan experienced a succession of ten Prime Ministers until 2001. In 2001, Junichiro Koizumi was elected as Prime Minister and completed a five-year term. After Koizumi’s exit in 2006, Japan saw six Prime Ministers in the next six years until Shinzo Abe assumed office in 2013. After Abe’s resignation in 2020, Japan had three Prime Ministers in a span of four years.
The latest addition to this list of Prime Ministers is Shigeru Ishiba. Unfortunately, Ishiba did not secure the required majority in the lower house and is running a minority government, reigniting concerns of a return to the “revolving door” polity. Shigeru Ishiba assumed office after winning the leadership race for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). His predecessor, Japan’s eighth-longest-serving post-war Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, decided to step down due to a loss of public trust.
Interestingly, Ishiba, who once parted ways with the LDP in the 1990s, joined the Shinshintō (New Frontier Party), an opposition group that played a key role in the coalition government. However, after returning to the LDP, Ishiba’s political career gained momentum when Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi (2001–2006) appointed him as the director general of the Defense Agency, which later became the Ministry of Defense. Ishiba previously tried four times to become the leader of the LDP (2008, 2012, 2018, and 2021) but he could succeed only in fifth and last attempt to become the leader of the LDP.
During his campaign for the leadership of the LDP, Shigeru Ishiba outlined several key policy priorities. He suggested the creation of a regional collective security structure like Asian NATO, referencing the escalating tensions between China and Taiwan and paralleling them with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Ishiba underscored the significance of a robust Japan-United States (US) alliance and articulated his intention to reassess the agreement regulating the Japan-U.S. Status of Force Agreement (SOFA) in Japan to foster a more equitable collaboration. Furthermore, he advocated the revision of Japan’s pacifist Constitution to openly acknowledge the Self-defence Forces (SDF). This corresponds with the LDP’s longstanding objective of resolving discussions on the constitutional legitimacy of Japan’s military capability. In a way he took a more hawkish stance with respect to the security situation of the region. Most importantly he argued for reforming the scandal ridden LDP party.
Eventually, Ishiba triumphed in the LDP leadership election on September 27, overcoming Sanae Takaichi in a tightly contested battle. He was formally designated as Japan’s 102nd Prime Minister on October 1. This leadership campaign was significant for being the largest in the party’s history, featuring nine contenders. Remarkably, even before he was officially nominated in the National Assembly, Ishiba hinted at dissolving the Lower House to call for a snap election for the country.
In the general elections for the House of Representatives on October 27, 2024, Japan’s ruling LDP-Komeito coalition encountered a significant defeat. The election marked a historic moment as the LDP lost its majority in the lower house for only the third time in its seven-decade history of dominance. The party’s seat total plummeted from 259 in the 2021 elections to merely 191 in 2024, resulting in a loss of 69 seats. Komeito, the LDP’s enduring coalition partner, experienced a decrease in its performance, with its seats diminishing from 32 in 2021 to 24 in 2024, resulting in a loss of 8 seats.
Prime Minister Ishiba’s decision to call a sudden election has proven detrimental. His objective of fortifying the LDP’s foundation and stabilising his administration has proven unsuccessful, since the ruling coalition has lost its majority, thereby further undermining party support. Ishiba, formerly regarded as a progressive inside the LDP, pledged to restructure the party, enhance openness, and tackle finance concerns. Upon assuming the roles of party leader and prime minister, he realigned with conventional LDP views, resulting in disappointment and feelings of betrayal among many of his followers.
The Democratic Party for the People (DPP) has become a prominent player in the political landscape following its significant success in the October 27 election. The party expanded its presence in the Lower House fourfold, securing 28 seats. With no party holding a majority, the DPP is now poised to play a pivotal role in upcoming negotiations with LDP on policy basis, domestically, instead of joining LDP in forming a coalition thereby giving Ishiba a hard time to successfully run the government.
Furthermore, Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election may provide an additional degree of complexity. Although Trump may be amenable to Ishiba’s advocacy for enhanced equality in Japan-U.S. relations, he might get dismayed with Ishiba’s tenuous standing domestically. In this context, it is crucial to closely monitor developments in Japan’s domestic politics and Ishiba’s policy strategies to gauge the direction of the country’s domestic and foreign policy, especially given the volatile regional security environment.
Dr. Anudeep Gujjeti is Assistant Professor at the Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies, REVA University, Bengaluru.
