Georgia’s Geopolitical Dilemma: Balancing Domestic Politics and Regional Pressures
Dr. Zheer Ahmed
Georgia’s internal political landscape is deeply intertwined with its regional and global geopolitical context. The country is at a critical juncture, navigating the complexities of a foreign policy that oscillates between aligning with the West and embracing a multi-vector approach to balance relationships with major Eurasian powers. This balancing act has become increasingly challenging following the October parliamentary elections, with Georgia now facing heightened internal and external pressures that will shape its strategic direction in the coming years. The country’s political landscape is marked by intense rivalry between the ruling Georgian Dream party and a fragmented opposition. The elections highlighted this divide, with Georgian Dream Party securing a narrow majority of 54% of the vote. While this was enough to form a government, it fell short of the constitutional majority required to unilaterally amend the constitution.
The Shifting Foreign Policy Landscape
Georgia’s foreign policy has leaned towards a pro-West prioritizing integration of Georgia with the European Union (EU) and fostering strong ties with the US. However, recent developments have shifted Georgia away from an exclusively Western orientation toward a more diversified approach. This multi-vector foreign policy involves building relationships with countries, such as China, Turkey, and other Eurasian powers while attempting to maintain same level of engagement with the EU and the US.
Georgia’s strategy of balancing major powers hinges on its ability to navigate regional complexities. However, this approach is under strain due to deteriorating relations with Western allies. The EU and the US have expressed concerns over Georgia’s domestic policies, including controversial legislation such as the ‘foreign agents’ law. These issues have created friction between Tbilisi and Brussels leading to freezing of bilateral engagement, though certain benefits, like visa-free travel to the EU remain intact. Moreover, the US appears to be scaling back its involvement in Georgia and the broader South Caucasus as its focus shifts to other global priorities such as the West Asia and the Indo-Pacific. This reduction in Western attention could further complicate Georgia’s efforts to sustain a balanced foreign policy. Therefore, Georgia’s multi-vector foreign policy faces significant challenges, particularly when its relations with the West deteriorate. Public opinion strongly favors EU membership with 90% of Georgians supporting closer ties with the EU and 89% opposing alignment with Russia. This public sentiment underscores the difficulty of aligning domestic priorities with external pressures.
The geopolitical context adds another layer of complexity. A potential Russian victory in Ukraine could shift the regional balance of power, making it harder for Georgia to resist Russian influence. Additionally, the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election could significantly impact Georgia’s strategic calculus. Donald Trump’s return to office in January 2025 has already diverted Western attention from the South Caucasus, creating further uncertainty for Georgia. Given these challenges, Georgia may adopt a more pragmatic and transactional approach to its relationships with the West. This could involve maintaining minimal engagement with the EU and the US, while strengthening ties with Eurasian powers such as Russia, China, Turkey, and potentially Iran. However, this strategy risks alienating the majority of Georgians who favor closer alignment with the West.
Balancing Domestic and External Pressures
Georgia’s future will be shaped by its ability to balance domestic priorities with external geopolitical pressures. Internally, the country faces a period of political instability and division. The run-up to the 2028 elections is likely to be marked by heightened tensions between the ruling party and the opposition, with little hope for bipartisan cooperation. Externally, Georgia’s strategic options are constrained by a shifting geopolitical landscape. While public opinion strongly favors EU membership, the government’s strained relations with West suggest a pragmatic shift toward Eurasian powers. This approach, however, risks alienating the pro-Western majority and undermining Georgia’s long-term aspirations for EU integration.
One key development that could significantly impact Georgia’s trajectory is the outcome of the war in Ukraine. A Russian victory would embolden Moscow and complicate Georgia’s efforts to maintain its sovereignty and independence. Conversely, a weakened Russia could create opportunities for Georgia to strengthen its ties with the West. In the face of these uncertainties, Georgia’s internal political developments will continue to influence its external behavior. While the ruling party and the opposition remain deeply divided, both sides must navigate a complex geopolitical environment that demands strategic foresight and adaptability.
Lastly, Georgia stands at a crossroads, grappling with a delicate balance between domestic political dynamics and external geopolitical pressures. Its multi-vector foreign policy, while pragmatic faces significant challenges in the face of strained relations with the West and growing influence from Eurasian powers. Internally, a divided opposition and a narrowly victorious ruling party underscore the fragility of Georgia’s political landscape. The coming years will be critical in determining Georgia’s strategic direction. Whether the country can sustain its balance between major powers or is forced to align definitively with one geopolitical camp will depend on both internal stability and external developments. As a small but strategically significant actor in the South Caucasus, Georgia’s ability to navigate these challenges will have far-reaching implications for its future and the broader region.
Dr. Zheer Ahmed, Assistant Professor at the Centre of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies, REVA University, Bengaluru.
