Georgia at Crossroads: The Geopolitical Implications of its Political Crisis
Dr. Zheer Ahmed
Political unrest in Georgia has escalated due to a conflict between the government led by the Georgian Dream party and President Salome Zourabichvili. Following the October 26 parliamentary elections, the Georgian Dream party secured over 54% of the votes. However, the opposition rejected the results, alleging electoral fraud and Russian interference in the election. President Zourabichvili criticized the government for obstructing Georgia’s European integration.
Tensions peaked on November 28 when Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced the postponement of European Union (EU) accession talks until 2028, accusing Brussels of undue pressure on Georgia. He also rejected EU’s financial aid, historically vital for reforms in Georgia’s public and judicial sectors. This move, however, violates Article 78 of Georgia’s constitution, which mandates the pursuit of Georgia European integration.
Public Backlash and Pro-European Sentiment
The Georgian people’s strong pro-European sentiments have fueled extensive protests following the government’s controversial decision to postpone EU accession talks. Demonstrators have taken to the streets in large numbers, waving EU and Georgian flags and demanding the reversal of the decision and new elections. Rustaveli Street in Tbilisi has become the epicenter of these rallies, symbolizing the public’s commitment to safeguarding Georgia’s sovereignty and democratic ideals.
However, these protests have faced severe repression. Law enforcement agencies have employed tear gas and water cannons to disperse protesters, leading to allegations of excessive force. Independent media outlets have broadcast footage of police violence against demonstrators and journalists, intensifying public outrage. The government’s strict response has drawn widespread international condemnation. Prominent voices like Council of Europe Secretary General Alain Berset and the US Helsinki Commission have expressed deep concern, underscoring fears about the erosion of democratic freedoms in Georgia.
Georgian Dream’s Shift toward Russia
The enmity between Russia and Georgia is rooted in Georgia’s struggle to maintain sovereignty against Russian domination. In 1921, Soviet forces invaded Georgia after a brief period of independence, ushering in decades of political and cultural repression. This legacy of subjugation persisted until the Soviet Union’s dissolution in 1991. However, Georgia’s independence brought instability, including the Abkhazian War (1992–1993), where Russian-backed separatists carried out ethnic cleansing against Georgians. In 2008, Russia invaded Georgia, solidifying control over Abkhazia and South Ossetia, two separatist regions. These events have driven Georgia’s aspiration to align with the West, seeking EU and NATO membership as a bulwark against Russian aggression.
However, under the leadership of the Georgian Dream party, founded by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, Georgia has faced growing accusations of shifting toward Russia. The party’s anti-Western rhetoric, including attacks on NGOs and allegations of interference in its domestic affairs by the EU and the US has alienated Western allies. Observers argue this rhetoric undermines Georgia’s EU’s aspirations, aligning the nation more closely with Moscow’s geopolitical interests.
The international community has expressed concerns over Georgia’s political trajectory. The US has introduced the MEGOBARI Act, which aims to bolster Georgia’s democracy, human rights, and rule of law while countering Russian influence. This initiative underscores the US commitment to support Georgia’s EU integration and ensuring that it remains resilient against Russian Influence. However, the effectiveness of such measures depends on sustained international engagement and pressure on the Georgian government to uphold democratic principles.
The Geopolitical Stakes
The political crisis in Georgia has far-reaching consequences for both regional stability and global geopolitics. Located at the nexus of Europe and Asia, Georgia serves as a critical linchpin in the West’s strategy to counter Russian influence in the Caucasus, a region of significant geopolitical importance. Its strategic location makes it a vital corridor for transporting energy resources from the Caspian Sea to European markets. These transit routes are central to efforts aimed at reducing Europe’s dependency on Russian energy, thereby curbing Moscow’s leverage over the continent.
A pro-Russian shift in Georgia would dramatically alter the regional balance of power, granting Moscow greater control over the Caucasus. Such a development would not only consolidate Russia’s influence, but also undermine the West’s geopolitical standing in the region. This realignment could disrupt energy supply chains, heightening Europe’s vulnerability to energy coercion. Moreover, it would embolden Russia’s aspirations for regional hegemony, complicating Western efforts to maintain stability in Eastern Europe and beyond.
Finally, it is argued that Georgia’s current crisis is more than a domestic political struggle. It is a pivotal moment in the country’s quest for sovereignty, democracy, and Western integration. The government’s decision to suspend EU negotiations has triggered a public outcry, symbolizing the population’s resistance against a pro-Russian turn.
The outcome of this crisis will shape not only Georgia’s future but also the broader geopolitical landscape. If the West fails to act decisively, Georgia risks falling into a geopolitical limbo, jeopardizing its democratic aspirations and regional stability. Conversely, sustained domestic and international efforts could help Georgia reaffirm its commitment to a European future, serving as a beacon of hope for democracy in the post-Soviet space.
Dr. Zheer Ahmed, Assistant Professor at Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies, REVA University, Bengaluru.
