Geopolitical Strains of the Evolving Dynamics of Russia-Azerbaijan Relations

Dr. Zheer Ahmed

The diplomatic relationship between Russia and Azerbaijan has increasingly deteriorated due to evolving geopolitical dynamics in the South Caucasus. This heightened tension has been underscored by Azerbaijan’s recent declaration of Russian legislator Nikolai Valuev as ‘persona non grata’, a move that followed the closure of the Russian House Cultural Centre in Baku. Azerbaijani officials alleged that the center was engaged in intelligence activities in the country, further intensifying bilateral friction.

Moscow, in response, sought to downplay the significance of these developments, suggesting that the closure of the Russian House was a ‘misunderstanding’ that could be resolved through diplomatic dialogue. However, Azerbaijan’s actions appear to be a deliberate effort to assert sovereignty by curtailing foreign influence in its territory. This trend signals a broader strategic reorientation, as Baku seeks to reduce its political dependence on Moscow.

Following the closure of the Russian House, Azerbaijan undertook additional measures to diminish Russian influence in its media landscape. Specifically, the government significantly curtailed the presence of the Russian state-funded media outlet, Sputnik Azerbaijan, reducing its workforce from 40 employees to a single individual. This decisive action underscores Azerbaijan’s commitment to controlling domestic narratives and limiting Moscow’s capacity to shape public discourse. Notably, Azerbaijan has pursued similar policies towards Western media entities such as the BBC, reflecting a broader strategy aimed at reinforcing national sovereignty over information channels.

The current strain in Russia-Azerbaijan relations can be traced to a critical incident on 25 December 2024, when an Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) Embraer 190 aircraft (route from Baku to Grozny), crashed into the Caspian Sea near Aktau, Kazakhstan, resulting in the loss of 38 lives. Initial investigations by Kazakh authorities supported Azerbaijan’s assertion that the aircraft was struck by a Russian surface-to-air missile, raising serious allegations of external interference. Russian President Vladimir Putin extended condolences to his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, but refrained from assuming responsibility or offering reparations.

In response, the Azerbaijani government formally demanded that Russia acknowledge its involvement, issue an official apology, and provide financial compensation to the victims’ families. Moscow’s outright rejection of these demands has further exacerbated diplomatic tensions. Consequently, this incident has reinforced Baku’s determination to recalibrate its relationship with Russia and reduce Moscow’s sway in Azerbaijan’s domestic and foreign policy framework.

Despite these challenges, a complete rupture in Azerbaijan-Russia relations remains improbable. Azerbaijan has historically pursued a careful balancing strategy among key geopolitical actors, including Russia, Türkiye, Iran, and the West. Energy cooperation remains a cornerstone of this equilibrium. Although certain Russian policymakers have proposed obstructing the Baku-Novorossiysk oil pipeline as a retaliatory measure, such an action would be largely symbolic, given that the pipeline transports a relatively modest 20,000 barrels per day. By contrast, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, which serves as Azerbaijan’s primary oil export route, remains operational and unaffected by these tensions. Moreover, Russia continues to derive economic benefits from Azerbaijani oil transit fees, thereby limiting the effectiveness of economic reprisals.

The ongoing energy initiatives serve as a stabilizing factor in bilateral relations. One particular notable example is Russia’s plan to transfer 300 million cubic meters of natural gas per day to Iran via Azerbaijani territory. Such initiatives underscore the pragmatic dimensions of Russia-Azerbaijan cooperation, despite the prevailing diplomatic discord.

From an economic perspective, the trade relationship between Russia and Azerbaijan remains asymmetrical, but mutually beneficial. In 2024, Azerbaijan’s exports to Russia totaled USD 1.178 billion, accounting for only 4.4% of its overall exports. Conversely, Russian exports to Azerbaijan amounted to USD 3.621 billion, highlighting Moscow’s dominant position in trade relations. While Russia could theoretically leverage economic pressure, such as trade restrictions, constraints on Azerbaijani migrant remittances, and diplomatic isolation, its overall influence in this domain remains limited. Notably, annual remittances from Azerbaijani migrants in Russia total approximately USD 500 million, constituting a minor fraction of Azerbaijan’s overall economy.

Given these interdependencies, Azerbaijan is likely to maintain engagement with Russia on critical economic and energy-related issues, albeit within a context of cautious diplomacy. Nevertheless, bilateral relations are expected to remain relatively tepid. Both nations have compelling reasons to prevent an uncontrolled escalation of hostilities, as broader geopolitical considerations necessitate a degree of cooperation. For Russia, maintaining stable relations with Azerbaijan is particularly crucial in light of its ongoing military engagement in Ukraine. The prolonged nature of the Ukraine conflict, despite apparent US willingness to facilitate a resolution, suggests that Moscow is unlikely to divert substantial attention or resources to escalating tensions with Azerbaijan.

Russia’s ability to maintain regional influence will largely depend on the outcome of the Ukraine war. A decisive Russian victory would likely bolster Moscow’s standing and enable it to exert greater leverage over Azerbaijan and its South Caucasus neighbors. Conversely, a protracted or unfavorable resolution in Ukraine may diminish Russia’s capacity to enforce its geopolitical preferences in the region. Until such geopolitical uncertainties are resolved, Azerbaijan is expected to continue asserting a more independent foreign policy. A trajectory that Moscow has consistently sought to counteract.

While Russia and Azerbaijan’s relationship is currently characterized by heightened tensions, neither side is likely to sever ties completely. Baku remains committed to pursuing greater autonomy in its foreign policy, yet it recognizes the need to maintain pragmatic cooperation with Moscow in key economic and energy sectors. As broader geopolitical dynamics continue to evolve, periodic friction between the two nations will persist, reflecting the complex interplay of sovereignty, strategic interests, and regional power dynamics in the South Caucasus.

Dr. Zheer Ahmed, Assistant Professor, Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies, REVA University, Bengaluru.