Fragile Frontier: Rising Strains Between Pakistan and Afghanistan

Dr. Devender Kumar

Pakistan’s recent cross-border strikes killed 16 Afghans and intensified tensions on its western frontier with Afghanistan. Simultaneous strains persist along Pakistan’s eastern border with India, raising alarms over rising instability on both fronts.

The Afghan Taliban, after taking over Afghanistan following the American withdrawal, claimed territory on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border as part of Afghanistan and stated that its border with Pakistan “was drawn unjustly”.

The border between Afghanistan and Pakistan (the Durand Line) is contested as a dangerous sequence of escalation unfolds. In December last year, Pakistan conducted air strikes in Khost and Paktika regions of Afghanistan that killed 46 Afghans, including women and children. Afghanistan considered attack “a violation of international law” and “cowardly”, and vowed that it “will not go unanswered”.

Now, the security forces of both countries have fought at the Torkham crossing, a transit point. Islamabad has taken an aggressive stand against Afghanistan, and the Defence Minister Khawaja Asif has stated that “Pakistan will continue to launch attacks against Afghanistan as part of a new military operation”. This has further deteriorated Pakistani-Taliban relations and can potentially lead to a full-fledged war between the two.

This tussle has severely impacted the Afghan economy by affecting the imports of essential goods from Pakistan. Nearly 5000 trucks were stopped from entering Afghanistan due to severe border conditions. This has subsequently contributed to the fragile Afghan economy, where more than 50 percent of the population, nearly 23.7 million, requires humanitarian assistance.

Pakistan is expelling Afghans from the country and has accelerated this drive by expelling nearly 19,500 this month alone, with another 80,000 expected to be expelled before the end of this month. Pakistan is considering removing nearly 3 million Afghans from the country. With this move, Pakistani authorities have started harassing Afghans through extortion, harassment, and arrests. The Foreign Minister of the Taliban expressed “deep concerns” regarding the forced removal of Afghans from Pakistan and shared his “disappointment,” stating that “Pakistani authorities prevent the suppression of the rights of Afghans living there and those coming. The Pakistani authorities have alleged that nearly “85,000” Afghans have entered the country “undocumented”.

These developments have significantly strained ties between the two neighbouring countries, generating persistent border tensions along Pakistan’s western frontier with Afghanistan. The status quo reflects a broader outline of instability in the region, driven by cross-border attacks, refugee movements, and mutual cynicism between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

There are four key strategic reasons for Pakistan's recent military actions along the Afghan border that have contributed to a deteriorating security environment.

First, Pakistan fears the rise of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a group formed in the tribal areas, particularly in the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) of Pakistan, with a majority of Pashtuns in its ranks. The central government of Pakistan has experienced tension from this group in the NWFP province.

Second, Pakistan “favoured Taliban victory” during the US control over Afghanistan. After the US withdrawal from the Afghanistan, then Prime Minister Imran Khan saw the moment as “breaking the chains of slavery”. However, the rise of the Pashtun population generates fear of a repeat of 1971 due to linguistic and ethnic reasons in the NWFP, as the TTP gains ground in the country.

Third, the Pakistani state is paranoid about the western territories of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan, which have a significant Pashtun population that speaks Pashto. Pakistan has not succeeded in suppressing Pashtun and Baloch nationalism through a “strict brand of Islam” via state-sponsored madrassas and fears civil war and partition, having already lost East Pakistan due to ethnic and linguistic reasons. Pakistan seeks to reduce the number of Afghans and evicts a large population of Afghan Pashtuns., Meanwhile, the nationalist Pashtun parties in Pakistan have condemned the expulsion move.

Fourth, the Pakistan is failing in its attempt to foster a cohesive national identity, particularly through the imposition of Urdu as the sole national language, as well as in its efforts to establish a clear and unified definition of the state as an Islamic country. Consequently, it is attempting to stop the concentration of Pashtuns in the country to prevent demands for an independent NWFP.

Fifth, the TTP represents the largest concentration of Pashtun; hence, Pakistan targets the TTP and has designated it a “terrorist organization”. The tension on the border arises from Pakistan's attempts to stop the migration of Afghans into the country, and tensions are escalating as Pakistan views Afghanistan as a major supporter of the TTP.

Through its counter-operations against the TTP and Pashtun groups, the Pakistani state is creating border tensions on its western frontier.

However, the suppression of Afghan Pashtuns is likely to continue, as the state pursues the removal of over three million Afghan nationals from its territory, a long-term strategy aimed at undermining any potential demands for an independent Pashtunistan.

Dr. Devender Kumar is Assistant Professor at the Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies (CEGIS), REVA University.