Is US weakening the Atlantic Alliance?
Dr. Vijay Sakhuja
A series of statements and pronouncements by President Donald Trump have rattled the NATO member countries. There is not only dismay and disappointment over the US’ intensions-plans, a sense of anxiety pervades among the Alliance members about the future trajectory of US commitment to the Alliance. Since assuming office President Trump has warned the Alliance members to increase their defence budget (minimum 5% of GDP). He even threatened to leave the Alliance which has surely jolted the European NATO partners out of the comfort zone of “Free Riding”.
Also, the recent Trump administration’s unilateral plans to forfeit the position of Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), a position held by a four-star U.S. General for nearly 75 years, is looming large among the member states. However, there is a pushback in the US over the issue amid fears that such a move “would undercut not only America's influence within the alliance but also our national security and military power throughout the world” as also put both the US and its allies at a “disadvantage in the global struggle between democracy and despotism”.
Perhaps what has made the European members of the Alliance extremely nervous is the fact that Washington chose to keep them out of the talks on ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine for a ceasefire. EU has also accused President Trump of “transactional” foreign policy. At another level, the EU must also contend with some of its member states (Hungary, Slovakia, Serbia, Romania led by the far-right presidential candidate) who are “sympathetic to or cooperating with Moscow”.
Be that as it may, it is true that in the past European countries had chosen to underspend on defence and were “spend[ing] lavishly on social welfare and infrastructure instead of ensuring their own defense”. In 2024, former NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced that “NATO allies in Europe will invest a combined total of $380 billion in defence. The new NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte too has vehemently argued that the grouping members should spend “considerably more than 3%” on defence. President Andrzej Duda of Poland has twice submitted request for NATO to increase its minimum guideline for defence spending to 3% of GDP, up from the current 2%. He stated “If the entire alliance does not increase its spending, then unfortunately Putin may want to attack again, because there will be no effective deterrence,”
Germany has now announced “Euro 500 billion fund as well as relaxation of its constitutionally protected debt rules” which can only be “justified under very specific circumstances”. The incoming conservative chancellor Friedrich Merz along with the Social Democrats (SPD) have conceded that their country “for at least a decade, felt a false sense of security” and now to faces a “paradigm shift”, which required “us to rebuild our defence capabilities, in part from scratch”. Furthermore, “The decision we are taking today…can therefore be nothing less than the first major step towards a new European defense community.”
As far as France is concerned, soon after Trump’s victory in the US election, French President Emmanuel Macron had expressed concerns over low European defence spending. In his New Year’s speech to the military at the Army Digital and Cyber Support Command in western France, he exhorted European NATO partners to spend more and remarked “What will we do in Europe tomorrow if our American ally withdraws its warships from the Mediterranean? If they send their fighter jets from the Atlantic to the Pacific?” President Emmanuel Macron continues to be in the forefront of a campaign “to convince EU countries to stop buying U.S. defense equipment and buy French and European instead”. In an interview Macron conveyed that he intends to “convince European states that have become accustomed to buying American,” to shift to local options. As far as defence imports by the European NATO members is concerned “64 percent of arms imports by European NATO states came from the USA in 2020–24” and trends have been consistent “in any five-year period of the past two decades”.
Perhaps a time has come for the European nations to carry their own defence burden, which would require the defence industries to get back to production. The countries will also have to move away from dependency on the US. It is fair to say that this will require not only funds but also a strong political will to spend more on defence. The recent “Joint White Paper for European Defence Readiness 2030” calls the European countries to “re-arm” by developing “necessary capabilities and military readiness to credibly deter armed aggression and secure our own future” which necessitates a colossal increase in European defence spending. This should temporarily satisfy the US, and Washington would do well to stop demonizing EU as well as threatening to exit or divide the Alliance.
Dr. Vijay Sakhuja is Professor and Head, Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies (CEGIS), REVA University, Bengaluru and is associated with Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi.
